Bryan Caplan over at the Library of Economics and Liberty has some clever applications of Kahnemann's ideas to economic matters, as illustrated by the way non-economists and first-year undergrads (might) approach tricky economic questions (using a simple rule-of-thumb translation):
Target Question Heuristic Question Does the minimum wage help low-skill workers? Would I be happy if employers gave low-skilled workers a raise? What policies will make Americans richer? What policies try to hurt people I don't like? Do anti-firing laws help workers in the long-run? Is it bad to be fired? How much will Obamacare improve Americans' health per dollar spent? How bad do I feel when I think about sick people without insurance? What is the most efficient level of tax progressivity? How much do I admire/envy the rich?
Needless to say, economists could argue at length about which substitutions students make when we confront them with challenging questions. Better yet, we could try to empirically - even experimentally - triangulate their substitutions. Whatever the specifics, though, substitution is a plausible explanation of not only the absurdity of many popular views about how the economy works, but people's certainty about these absurdities.
No comments:
Post a Comment