The paper will be out later in the year in a volume edited by Jordi Gali and Luis Felipe Céspedes. Right now, with a doctoral student from UPF, Jacopo Ponticelli, I am working on a related paper to see how much of this holds over the long run in a wider set of countries.
Wednesday, 23 February 2011
I should be more careful what I work on...
you see, first I worked on (historical) bubbles, and then NASDAQ blew up... then I did research on the sovereign debt defaults, and Greece imploded. In the fall, for a conference at the Bank of Chile, I did a paper on social and political unrest - assassinations, riots, anti-government demonstrations, violent overthrows of the government... and look what we get in the Middle East. The pejorative term for scholars changing research focus as events unfold is "intellectual ambulance chasers"... but what is this? A reverse Midas touch? At any rate, for a sample of South American countries, I looked at what drove levels of unrest. In particular, I show that budget cuts have a strong effect on the likelihood of instability - over and above the effects of an economic downturn. Here is a link and the abstract: